Hollard Campaign Forecast Tool (MLM – My Life and More)

Forecast monthly commission cash-in vs key cost centers to test campaign viability before onboarding and resourcing. Built around: Agents → Sales → Collection → Commission, with lead costs driven by Accepted→Sale conversion.

0) Forecast Controls POC-ready

Forecast uses monthly periods starting at this date.
Length of forecast horizon (months).
Use agent-based for POC; switch to target when traction assumptions become primary.
Hollard’s example uses ~R3,600 per successful policy in Y1 not taking retention holdback into account.

1) Volume & Funnel Assumptions

Initial onboarded sales agents for the POC.
Used to convert sales/day to monthly policies sold (Hollard’s example implies 10 working days for 60 sales/month).
Example: 3 sales per agent per day.
Projected policies/month once traction is gained (used when Volume Driver = Target Policies Sold).
Example: 10% (600 accepted leads → 60 sales).
100% Stop Order business; this is the assumed first-premium collection success rate.

2) Product & Commission Assumptions

Product: MLM (My Life and More) — consolidated life + funeral + short-term insurance. Avg premium provided: R500.

Note: Viability KPIs default to Year-1 cash-in. Optional Year-2 and annual review are displayed as upside only.

3) Cost Assumptions

4) Derived Commission Values (Calculated)

Metric
Value
Unit

Unit Economics (Single Month — based on current inputs) Viability snapshot

Metric Value Unit Notes
Break-even math: (1) Max allowable CPL solves Profit=0 holding volume constant. (2) Break-even policies solves Profit=0 holding CPL constant.

Monthly Forecast (Revenue vs Cost Centers) Override-ready

Each month can override Agents, Working Days, Sales/Agent/Day, Collection%, Conversion%, and CPL. Defaults copy from Inputs until overridden.

Month Agents Work Days Sales/Agent/Day Policies Sold Collection % Collected Policies Conv% (Acc→Sale) Accepted Leads CPL/Accepted Lead Cost Y1 Comm/Collected Revenue (Y1) Fixed Costs Total Cost Net Profit
Fixed costs scale with Agents: Agent payroll, FSCA monthly (annual/12), Compliance per agent. Compliance management, TL/Manager, QA, Other are fixed monthly.

Charts

Revenue vs Costs vs Net Profit (Monthly)

Revenue
Total Cost
Net Profit
This is a lightweight SVG chart (no external libraries).

Collected Policies & Accepted Leads (Monthly)

Collected Policies
Accepted Leads
If you want the “50 policies once traction is gained” assumption to ramp in, switch Volume Driver to Target Policies Sold, or override policies in specific months.

Assumptions & Definitions

Key definitions

  • Policies Sold: policies written (sales). Driven either by agent production or target policies.
  • Collected Policies: sold policies where first premium (1P) is collected (Stop Order).
  • FYC (First-Year Commission): annualised premium × FYC%. Annualised premium = monthly premium × 12.
  • Retention Holdback: % of FYC held back (often released later). “Net Cash-In” subtracts this; “Gross” ignores it.
  • Accepted Leads: volume of accepted leads required to produce Policies Sold given Accepted→Sale conversion.
  • Lead Cost: Accepted Leads × CPL per accepted lead.
  • Fixed Costs: agent payroll + FSCA monthly + compliance per agent + compliance management + (optional) TL/Manager + QA + Other.

Math audit notes

  • When Conversion% is 0, Accepted Leads = 0 to avoid divide-by-zero.
  • Break-even Policies requires positive contribution margin: (Collection × CashIn) − (CPL / Conversion) > 0.
  • The app recalculates live; “Copy inputs → all months” resets month-level overrides to the global assumptions.